Friday, 4 November 2016

Rule of Five (tweets) Edition One: Reasons why May may call an early general election (in May)

Periodically I'll try to summarise the five most salient points about an issue via five tweets.

My Twitter is here.

Yesterday I tweeted as follows below.

Note that points 1 and 5 have been verified by today's news that Conservative pro-Brexit MP Stephen Phillips has resigned, thereby forcing a by-election, in protest at his Government's Brexit strategy of trying to limit Parliament'a involvement.

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5 reasons PM likely to call early election (1/5): to increase her majority which is perilously small at 12. All other reasons are connected

2/5 To give her clear democratic mandate (she's not been elected by party/the country) to govern as she wishes(ie different to Cam/Osborne)

3/5 To deal w/Article 50 High Court result by potentially getting HofCommons majority for Leave &maximising her strength in EU negotiations

4/5 To capitalise on Labour's unpopularity given the clear lead her party enjoys (which exists now but may not on 4 years' time)

5/5 to MINIMISE the risks: an early election is risky but the calculation must be that 2020 is even more risky as econ may be in trouble


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